Update: A no-confidence vote has now been announced for December 16 in Germany, with a federal election to follow on February 23, 2025.

Following the collapse of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democrat Party (FDP) and Green Party traffic-light coalition, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said he would be happy to face a no-confidence vote before Christmas.

Scholz could face a no-confidence vote before January 15

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has said that he is open to facing a no-confidence vote before Christmas, to let MPs decide whether he should continue as chancellor or if a snap federal election (Bundestagswahl) should be held.

"It is no problem for me at all to call a vote of confidence before Christmas if everyone agrees," the chancellor said to ARD host Caren Miosga, “I am not glued to my post”. 

After Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) for “betraying our trust too many times”, FDP members followed Lindner out of the Bundestag doors and the coalition collapsed on November 5. Left to run a minority government, Scholz announced that he would hold a no-confidence vote on January 15, 2025.

The chancellor said that in the meantime he would set about pushing several new laws through the Bundestag, such as obligations to check on asylum seekers’ identity papers upon their arrival in Germany and stabilising the statutory pension system. The chancellor added that he would enter discussions on possible cooperation with the opposing Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

But criticism came from the CDU almost immediately, with leader Friedrich Merz arguing that the January date was too late. The polls show the CDU as the favourite for Germany’s next federal election, while Scholz is widely expected to lose the no-confidence vote.

What happens if Scholz wins the no-confidence vote, what happens if he loses?

When a final date for the vote is announced, MPs will cast ballots on whether they have confidence in Scholz and his government. A vote on this question can be held in tandem with a vote on a new piece of legislation, but it doesn’t have to be.

If the majority of MPs vote in favour of Scholz’s minority government, he can continue as chancellor. If the more likely outcome occurs and Scholz loses the vote, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeir will dissolve parliament within 21 days of the result and the date for a federal election will be set.

When Scholz originally announced the no-confidence vote for January 15, 2025, March 9 was floated as a possible federal election date. However, according to Article 39 of the German Basic Law (Grundgesetz), a new election must be held within 60 days of a failed no-confidence vote. This means that if Scholz agrees to a no-confidence vote before Christmas and fails to garner a majority, Germany would likely have a federal election in January or early February 2025.

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