Analysis from the ifo Institute in Dresden has revealed that the number of births in Germany is continuing to decrease drastically, especially in eastern states.

Birth rate falling dramatically in Germany

The birth rate in Germany stands at 1,35 children per woman, compared to 1,58 children in 2021, the ifo Institute in Dresden has announced.

While the birth rate in Germany began its decline in 2015, it “has recently accelerated significantly” the Institute wrote in a press release. “The coronavirus crisis, the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and the subsequent drop in real income due to high inflation have clearly prompted many young families to put off having children for the time being,” said ifo representative Joachim Ragnitz.

The trend is not limited to Germany. In July 2024, a report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation (OECD) found that the birth rate in member countries, which includes Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK, has halved since the 1960s. 

However, Germany’s birth rate is still higher than what was recorded in the mid-1990s, when women in Germany were having an average of 1,2 children. Statistically, population figures will remain steady in any country that has a birth rate just above 2.

Far fewer children being born in eastern German states

According to ifo, a decline in the number of women aged 27 to 36 living in eastern Germany means that the birth rate is falling even more quickly in these federal states.

Since reunification in 1990 over a quarter of eastern Germans aged between 18 and 30 have moved to western states and more than 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, economic inequality between the former East and West doesn’t just prevail but is increasing.

“[P]oliticians would be well advised to monitor these developments more closely, also in order to avoid possible wrong decisions when expanding daycare and schooling,” Ragnitz said in the press release.

Which family policies has the coalition government introduced?

During his time in government, Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) has made several controversial policy changes affecting families. In July 2023, the coalition government announced that it would change the eligibility requirements for Elterngeld (parental allowance), meaning 60.000 families in Germany will no longer receive the support payments.

In August 2023, Lindner announced that the coalition would replace four different child benefits with one Kindergrundsicherung payment from 2025 and while the introduction of paternity leave (Vaterschaftsurlaub) was promised in the 2021 coalition agreement, it is yet to be delivered.

German Kitas (childcare centres) are also one of the sectors worst affected by the country’s record-high worker shortage, forcing existing childcare staff to work in increasingly stressful and dangerous conditions. Analysis from the German Economic Institute (IW) estimates that Germany lacks 306.000 available Kita spaces in 2024.

In August 2024, the Federal Ministry of Family Affairs announced that the 2 billion euros of federal funding granted to German states to entirely or partially subsidise Kita fees for parents, must now be spent on at least one measure designed to recruit and secure qualified staff. 

The Federal Ministry of Family Affairs says it does not expect that parents will have to pay Kita fees, at least not nationwide, because six of the 16 federal states use the federal funding to subsidise fees, others make use of their coffers to subsidise fees.

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