More and more practices in Germany are struggling to find a replacement after their principal GP retires - especially in rural areas. In some regions, the number of general practitioners could halve by 2025, according to a new study. 

11.000 practices could be without a GP by 2035

An increasing number of regions in Germany are being faced with a shortage of family doctors, a new study has found. According to the Robert Bosch Stiftung, a research organisation based in Stuttgart, as many as 11.000 practices in Germany could find themselves without a GP by 2035. In 2019 / 2020, 3.570 doctors’ offices were unoccupied. 

The report found that the worst-affected federal states in Germany are Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Saxony. In some districts in these states in particular, the number of general practitioners looks set to decrease by around 50 percent by 2035. 

One thing fuelling the country’s shortage of doctors is the age of the current cohort. According to figures from the Berlin IGES Institute, based on a sample of 52.000 general practitioners in Germany, almost 30.000 are likely to reach retirement age between 2019 and 2035. 

Doctors in Germany aren’t choosing to become GPs

However, as it currently stands, relatively few trainee doctors decide to set up as general practitioners (which in Germany usually involves becoming self-employed and practicing solo, or establishing a partnership business structure with one or several other GPs). Instead, young doctors increasingly prefer models of employment in which they get a regular salary and the option to work part-time hours. 

Returning to the sample of 52.000 GPs, the study’s model suggested that, of the 30.000 positions likely to become vacant by 2035, only around 25.000 would be filled. At the same time, the number of GP practices would likely rise to 58.000, to keep up with demographic trends. This would leave around 10.900 practices without a GP, thus decreasing the density of care in Germany from 63 to 57 general practitioners per 100.000 residents. 

The study’s authors suggest that local health centres, where larger teams of professionals are able to work more flexibly, could be a good alternative to the previous model of individual practices.